With the sign-ups closed and the first event in the history books. It's time to look at what events were the most and least popular. Additionally, at the end of this post I'm going to talk about what it takes to place in the D&D Decathlon and make it to the vaunted top four.
The Games
So, first off, some baseline numbers:
We had 18 individuals sign up for a grand total 88 slots, of which 81 made. There were 85 competition slots total (91 before I deleted the bracketed game of Alhambra because of lack of interest). At present, there are four open slots in the competition for last minute fill-ins, guests, etc. The average contestant signed up for ~4.9 games, made it into ~4.7.
I had ranking options available for each form, and while they are a good guide, they are not a perfect measure of popularity because not everyone filled them out (and additionally you can fill them out in an order that attempts to "game" the competition rather than represent the game you most desire to play). So while I will talk about the rankings in a moment, first lets talk about a simpler measure of sign-ups:
Popularity by Total Number of Sign-Ups
Seven Wonders - 14
Sentinels of the Multiverse - 12
Settlers of Catan - 12
Root - 10
Evolution - 10
Shogun - 9
Small World - 8
Scythe - 7
Alhambra - 6
The raw sign-up numbers give you a pretty good idea of the approximate popularity of each game, although its obviously weighted towards the easier to learn games that our "one and done" people prefer. I'm not surprised to see Seven Wonders do so well, it has rapidly become one of our standard games and is rapidly surpassing Settlers of Catan as my preferred game for getting the majority of competitors into the same room at the same time. The two new games this year, Sentinels and Root, both did extremely well in sign-ups too, as did another one we debuted last year: Evolution.
It's a testament to how much the popularity of these games is shaped by the games we host over the course of this year that Scythe and Small World (two of our favorites that we just haven't played a lot of recently), are on the lower end of the board. Finally, given how easy it is, I'm really surprised at where Alhambra landed. I was prepared to do a bracketed game of it, but due to lack of interest it will not be necessary.
Popularity by Percent Enrollment
Shogun - 180%
Root - 143%
Sentinels of the Multiverse - 100%
Seven Wonders - 100%
Scythe - 100%
Settlers of Catan - 100%
Scythe - 100%
Evolution - 83%
Small World - 80%
Alhambra - 100% (50%)
These numbers represent the total number of sign-ups as a factor of the available slots for that game. i.e. - there were five slots available for Shogun and nine people showed up.
My takeaway from this series of numbers is that people have finally figured out that Shogun is a very good Decathlon event to get into since you go in with a baseline 60% chance to score points. Root also came up with a very strong showing, which is not too surprising considering its general popularity with our play group.
Popularity by Ranking
I created this ranking by assigning a first choice game 6 points, a second choice game 5 points, and so on and so forth.
Sentinels of the Multiverse - 50
Root - 46
Seven Wonders - 38
Evolution - 34
Scythe - 27
Settlers of Catan - 23
Small World - 22
Shogun - 13
Alhambra - 7
Oof, Alhambra really was not popular with people. Even more surprising is the lack of people who ranked Shogun compared to the number of sign-ups. Considering four players did not make that game, just a marginally higher ranking by a couple of them could have gotten them into it.
These are just the raw numbers though, it gets more interesting when you divide the number by the number of sign-ups for each game.
Root - 4.6
Sentinels of the Multiverse - 4.2
Scythe - 3.8
Evolution - 3.4
Seven Wonders - 2.7
Small World - 2.2
Settlers of Catan - 1.9
Shogun - 1.4
Alhambra - 1.2
Okay, that changes things up a little bit. Seven Wonders is revealed to be the lower priority game it is for most people, while Root and Sentinels continue to top the scoreboard. The Scythe people really like Scythe is another takeaway from this.
Based purely on numbers, if we were to do the Decathlon against with the same people, we would definitely keep Root and Sentinels, and maybe look to bracket Shogun and Root and do them over multiple nights. Meanwhile, we would start looking to drop Alhambra and replace it with a more popular game.
Anyway, that's enough stat crunching, time for the real meat and potatoes.
How To Win
In the quest for the Golden Sailboat, there are a few general trends that have emerged out of our top four both years. Here are three pieces of advice for placing top four in the decathlon:
1. Play as many games as you can
The numbers don't lie, the more games you get into, the better chance you have of making top 4. The least number of games a contestant (and later winner) has made top four with was Kyle with three. This was pretty unusual though, and typically those who place competed in 5-8 games. While you can knock it out of the park on 1-2 games and get in, the usual path involves racking up more points from landing second and third places. So, if there is an empty slot in a game you originally didn't sign up for, take it! Finally, when signing up, prioritize smaller games (Alhambra, Shogun) where you go in with a baseline 50%/60% chance to get points versus the large crap shoots like Seven Wonders or Settlers of Catan.
2. Aim for 5 points
This is the magic number for getting into top 4. Historically, nobody has gotten in with less, and more than this all but guarantees you a slot. Two solid performances will get you there, or alternatively 3-4 middling ones. Whatever the case, know your current point total, know your point total goal, and plan accordingly. Slow and steady wins the race, and you should be thinking about which games you want to prioritize doing well in and where you want to hedge your bets with this point total in mind.
3. Play the table you're at
Not all tables are created equal. At some, you will be the clear favorite to win, at others, you will be hopelessly out of your depth. Know where you stand and work with it. If you know you can win, try to sandbag your position and conceal your power until the last minute. If you don't think you can win, try to limit the possibility that your nearest rival in decathlon standings can win. Don't be afraid to work together with other players to try and limit the power of a particularly strong player, or to sacrifice a 25% chance at getting first place for a 60% chance to get 2nd. You're playing the game in front of you but you are also playing the decathlon, and who gets 2nd and 3rd place matters - don't forget that.
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